The effect of Chin's soybean tariff on the republican party's vote share in the 2018 congressional election

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Date
2018
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Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Institute of Policy Studies, Sri Lanka
Abstract
I investigate the association of China’s retaliatory soybean tariff on the Republican vote share change between the 2016 and 2018 mid-term elections. Using county-level election data, I find a significantly negative and spatially heterogeneous association between soybean tariff and Republican vote share change. Mainly, I find that the tariff effect is more prominent in counties where Donald Trump’s vote share was between 40%-50% in 2016. In addition, the association is larger and significant in counties that ship soybean through Pacific Northwest ports implying the effect of the tariff was heterogeneous spatially.
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Keywords
congressional election, US-China trade war, Soybean tariff, Republican vote share, Mid-term election
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