A short-term forecasting model for the Sri Lanka economy
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Date
1980-12
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Abstract
A short-term econometric forecasting model has been constructed for Sri Lanka, Perhaps this is the first of its kind. It covers the main macro-economic magnitudes reported in the National Accounts of Sri Lanka, consumer and general price indices and money supply . It is a simultaneous equation model consisting of eight stochastic and two definitional equation in eleven predetermined and ten endogenous variables. The model has been estimated using two stage least squares method on relative first difference of the variables over the period 1963-77. Two forecasts and six back-casts have been have been made. Comparisons with released values show the model to be fairly accurate and stable. Theil's inequality coefficients have been computed and they seem to support this claim.
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Macro-economic, National Accounts,